Did You Overpay for Your AC? A Lawsuit Says Maybe

Price change since January 2020 as stated in the class-action complaint: HVAC equipment, kitchen appliances, and prices in general.

Seven companies that make most of the air conditioners, furnaces and heat pumps sold in the United States are being sued for fixing prices. On October 9 they asked a federal judge in Michigan to throw the case out.

Here is the short version. Nothing in the case changes what you should do this fall, and the biggest savings on a new system still come from the quotes you collect, not from a courtroom.

What the lawsuit says, and what the makers say back

The suits were filed this spring by homeowners and by contractors. They name Carrier, Trane, Lennox, Daikin, Rheem, Bosch and AAON, which between them sell most of the heating and cooling equipment in the country. The claim is simple: since 2020 these companies raised prices in step with each other, by more than their costs went up, and signaled their plans to one another through public announcements and an industry group.

The number at the center of the case is on the chart above. Equipment prices rose about 53.5 percent since January 2020, while kitchen appliances and prices in general rose about 30 percent. The complaint's economists say roughly 8 percent of what buyers paid was padding.

The makers answer that costs really did jump. Factory shutdowns, new efficiency rules in 2023, a switch to new refrigerants, and tariffs on steel, copper and aluminum all landed in the same few years. They also make a legal point: raising prices at the same time as your rivals is not a crime by itself.

Think of three gas stations on one corner. If all three go up a dime the same morning, that is not illegal unless they agreed to it first. The judge now has to decide whether the complaint shows an agreement or just a crowd moving together.

None of this is settled. No court has found that anyone did anything wrong, and a ruling on the motion could be months away.

What this means when you need a new system

A class action moves slowly and, if it ever pays out, pays small. Your own purchase is where the money is, so treat the lawsuit as background noise and shop like this.

Do not wait for a payout. If your system is dying, buy on your schedule. Cases like this take years.
Get three written quotes, and insist that each one lists the model numbers of the outdoor unit, the indoor coil or air handler, and the furnace. Without model numbers you cannot tell whether you are comparing the same thing.
Look the pair up in the AHRI directory, which is free, so you know the system's certified efficiency. Then compare the quotes line by line: equipment, labor, permit, old-unit disposal, thermostat, warranty.
Ignore "sign tonight before prices go up" pressure. Manufacturer increases are announced weeks ahead and run a few percent. A rushed choice of contractor costs more than that.
Keep the invoice with model and serial numbers. If a class is ever certified, that paper is how you would claim.

The pro you pick matters more than the brand

The professional in this story is the contractor. Choose one who measures the house and runs a room-by-room load calculation before naming a size (ask for a "Manual J"), holds a license and refrigerant certification, and pulls the permit. A careful installer does more for your bill over 15 years than the name on the box.

Go deeper: how price fixing is proven, and where your dollars go

Under US antitrust law, matching prices is not enough to win. Since the Supreme Court's Twombly decision in 2007, a complaint must plead facts that suggest an actual agreement, so plaintiffs lean on "plus factors": a trade association (AHRI) sharing member-only data, executives' comments on earnings calls, more than 40 published price increases over six years, and a regression analysis that controls for 19 cost variables (copper, aluminum, labor and so on) and attributes the residual, about 8 percent, to coordination. The defendants' motion of October 9, 2026 argues the opposite: the increases differed in size, timing and product line; SEER2 (effective January 1, 2023; Lennox told investors air conditioners would cost 10 to 15 percent more and heat pumps 20 to 25 percent more), the AIM Act refrigerant transition and metal tariffs explain the rise; and appliances are a poor comparator because they faced none of those mandates.

The lawsuit is about the factory price. The quotes you collect decide the contractor price, which varies far more.

A worked example puts the numbers in scale. Take $4,000 of equipment at the factory level in January 2020 (the complaint puts residential equipment at $4,000 to $15,000 at that level). At the complaint's 53.5 percent pace it is $6,140 today; at the appliance pace of 30.8 percent it would be $5,232, a gap of about $910. The alleged 8 percent padding on today's $6,140 is about $490.

Now look at the install side of the same purchase. Consumers' Checkbook's undercover shoppers found some companies charging more than three times what competitors charge for identical work. Even a mild 30 percent spread on a $10,000 installed job is $3,000, roughly six times the alleged overcharge on the equipment inside it. The distributor and contractor layers between the factory and your house are where a homeowner actually has leverage, and written quotes with model numbers are the tool.

Status: three sets of class actions (direct purchasers, commercial indirect purchasers, end-user indirect purchasers) are pending in the Eastern District of Michigan. The first consumer complaint was filed March 20, 2026; the joint motion to dismiss with prejudice was filed October 9, 2026. No ruling has been issued, and manufacturer price increases have kept arriving in the meantime (ACHR News lists about a dozen for October 2026 alone).

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